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November 12, 2020 Edition
Selected Economic Trends
After Five Months, Jobs Recovery Varies Across New York
Total employment in New York State fell in March, and again—much more sharply—in April, with a combined loss of more than 1.9 million jobs. After five months of partial employment recovery since then, figures for September show significant if not severe lingering damage to job counts in every one of the State’s fifteen metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).
New York City, an early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, continues to feel the sharpest loss, with a net decline of 648,000 jobs, nearly 14 percent of its February total. Figures for the Orange-Rockland-Westchester MSA also show a large decline of 10.7 percent. But the bad news is not confined to downstate regions, with net losses of more than 10 percent also occurring in the Rochester, Syracuse and Glens Falls MSAs.
The Elmira area, where employment lagged most of the State’s other regions during the expansion that ended in February, has suffered proportionally smaller losses in recent months.
| Total Jobs | Change from February | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Number | Percentage | ||
| Albany-Schenectady-Troy | 433.1 | (41.8) | -8.8% |
| Binghamton | 96.7 | (6.3) | -6.1% |
| Buffalo-Niagara Falls | 515.4 | (50.1) | -8.9% |
| Dutchess-Putnam | 135.4 | (13.9) | -9.3% |
| Elmira | 35.4 | (1.7) | -4.6% |
| Glens Falls | 49.6 | (5.8) | -10.5% |
| Ithaca | 60.3 | (3.3) | -5.2% |
| Kingston | 59.4 | (3.5) | -5.6% |
| Nassau-Suffolk | 1,230.0 | (126.3) | -9.3% |
| New York City | 4,049.8 | (648.3) | -13.8% |
| Orange-Rockland-Westchester | 650.2 | (77.9) | -10.7% |
| Rochester | 482.9 | (58.1) | -10.7% |
| Syracuse | 288.4 | (33.1) | -10.3% |
| Utica-Rome | 117.5 | (10.6) | -8.3% |
| Watertown-Fort Drum | 37.6 | (4.0) | -9.6% |
|
Note: Numbers of jobs in thousands Source: New York State Department of Labor |
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Medicaid Enrollment in New York Jumps by 600,000; Total Increase May Reach 1 Million
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, enrollment in the State’s Medicaid program has jumped by about 600,000 individuals or 9.8 percent since February 2020, to over 6.6 million New Yorkers in September. Some of the largest increases have occurred in New York City, where enrollment was up by over 350,000 individuals or 10.5 percent to 3.7 million. Enrollment outside the City rose by 237,000 or 8.8 percent to 2.9 million.
Counties with the largest percentage increases in enrollment include Nassau (13.1 percent), Putnam (12.8 percent), Saratoga and Suffolk (12.5 percent), Queens (12.3 percent), and Westchester and Tompkins (11.9 percent). Even counties with the lowest percentage increases showed significant gains; these included Seneca (5.3 percent), St. Lawrence (6.4 percent) and Orleans (6.5 percent).
In addition to figures for each county, the Department of Health reports statewide monthly totals designated as “Other.” In contrast to the sharp increase in overall Medicaid enrollment, the “Other” count has dropped by 26,438 or more than 29 percent since February, to 64,551 as of September. This group includes certain noncitizens whose authorized stay in the United States has expired.
The State’s midyear financial plan update, released October 30 by the Division of the Budget (DOB), projects Medicaid enrollment this fiscal year to exceed 7.1 million, an increase of nearly 1 million or 15.6 percent over last year, as a result of increased unemployment and other factors. Enrollment is projected to then decline, to about 6.5 million in 2021-22 and 6.1 million in each of the following years.
As a result of the enrollment spikes in Medicaid and other public health insurance programs, the State has increased projected current year spending by roughly $180 million, but anticipates savings starting in 2022-23, reflecting a decline in unemployment and the projected downward trend in Medicaid enrollment. Overall Medicaid spending in the State is expected to total about $81 billion in 2020-21, an increase of $5.1 billion or 6.7 percent over last year, according to DOB. The State’s share of the cost is projected to decrease by about $2.1 billion or 7.9 percent, largely due to $3 billion in additional federal pandemic-related funding provided to the State since January 2020.
- Medicaid Enrollment Change, February-September 2020 (Table)
-
County Recipients,
September 2020Increase,
February to September 2020% Increase,
February to September 2020Albany 69,288 6,215 9.9% Allegany 13,114 844 6.9% Broome 56,422 4,554 8.8% Cattaraugus 23,007 1,621 7.6% Cayuga 21,047 1,692 8.7% Chautauqua 40,382 2,922 7.8% Chemung 27,103 1,999 8.0% Chenango 15,015 1,180 8.5% Clinton 21,005 1,529 7.9% Columbia 15,408 1,337 9.5% Cortland 12,487 886 7.6% Delaware 11,018 927 9.2% Dutchess 62,731 6,320 11.2% Erie 255,861 21,860 9.3% Essex 8,875 758 9.3% Franklin 15,296 1,050 7.4% Fulton 15,655 1,063 7.3% Genesee 13,657 1,158 9.3% Greene 13,198 1,139 9.4% Hamilton 768 54 7.6% Herkimer 17,226 1,455 9.2% Jefferson 30,375 2,243 8.0% Lewis 5,545 417 8.1% Livingston 12,614 843 7.2% Madison 17,035 1,385 8.8% Monroe 212,047 17,354 8.9% Montgomery 19,368 1,504 8.4% Nassau 283,522 32,738 13.1% Niagara 57,303 5,103 9.8% Oneida 75,756 5,458 7.8% Onondaga 125,864 10,048 8.7% Ontario 23,932 2,274 10.5% Orange 114,391 11,124 10.8% Orleans 11,372 696 6.5% Oswego 34,792 2,417 7.5% Otsego 13,529 1,153 9.3% Putnam 15,227 1,730 12.8% Rensselaer 36,837 2,936 8.7% Rockland 124,734 11,239 9.9% Saint Lawrence 29,837 1,783 6.4% Saratoga 36,792 4,090 12.5% Schenectady 48,775 4,651 10.5% Schoharie 7,388 581 8.5% Schuyler 4,097 397 10.7% Seneca 8,260 415 5.3% Steuben 26,513 2,170 8.9% Suffolk 344,225 38,194 12.5% Sullivan 28,040 2,298 8.9% Tioga 12,414 1,190 10.6% Tompkins 17,493 1,859 11.9% Ulster 48,501 4,750 10.9% Warren 16,075 1,346 9.1% Washington 17,578 1,430 8.9% Wayne 22,747 1,947 9.4% Westchester 227,792 24,223 11.9% Wyoming 8,978 569 6.8% Yates 5,304 350 7.1% Other 64,551 (26,438) -29.1% New York City 3,737,911 354,560 10.5% Bronx 876,218 80,103 10.1% Kings 1,236,534 108,228 9.6% New York 460,612 39,991 9.5% Queens 1,009,778 110,327 12.3% Richmond 154,769 15,911 11.5% New York State 6,656,074 591,587 9.8% Note: “Other” includes certain non-citizens whose period of authorized stay has expired.
Source: New York State Department of Health
New York State Budget and Spending
The Office of the State Comptroller released its statutorily required projections of revenues and disbursements. The report projects that tax receipts in the current year and the next two fiscal years will be higher than projected by the Division of the Budget (DOB).
DOB released its midyear update to the Financial Plan. The updated plan makes no change to the Executive’s estimates of tax revenues, which remain projected at $74.5 billion this fiscal year, a decline of $8.4 billion or 10.2 percent from last year. Overall General Fund receipts for the current and next three fiscal years are projected to be nearly $63 billion below the levels estimated in February, according to DOB. Federal operating aid is projected at $78 billion, up $19.1 billion or 32.6 percent from last year. This includes the expected use of $5.1 billion from the federal Coronavirus Relief Fund (CRF) as well as the federally funded Lost Wages Assistance program. The plan identifies nearly $7 billion in State expenses eligible for CRF funding, including $2.7 billion in payroll for public health and public safety purposes. Such use of CRF resources could offset General Fund spending that otherwise would be expected. The plan also recognizes approximately $750 million in additional federal Medicaid matching funding through December 2020; a similar, additional amount may become available for the first quarter of calendar 2021, although this is uncertain.
Through September 30, DOB withheld more than $2.6 billion in payments through the expanded budget reduction authority granted in the Enacted Budget for the current year, according to the updated plan. This includes more than $2.3 billion in local assistance payments and $95 million in general salary increases. Some or all of these withheld payments may become permanent spending reductions, depending on the size and timing of any new federal aid. DOB has added $150 million from a recent Department of Financial Services settlement with Goldman Sachs to an informal reserve for “economic uncertainties,” bringing the total reserve to nearly $1.5 billion.
The State’s General Fund balance was $14.9 billion as of November 6. Among other factors contributing to that balance are $4.5 billion in proceeds from short-term borrowing that is anticipated to be repaid before the end of the fiscal year, and the more than $2.6 billion in delayed payments to local governments, nonprofit organizations and other entities mentioned above.
Prior Editions
- October 28, 2020
- October 14, 2020
- September 30, 2020
- September 16, 2020
- September 2, 2020
- August 19, 2020
- August 5, 2020
- July 22, 2020
- July 9, 2020