Reports

The Office of the State Comptroller prepares this report as part of the "Quick Start" process established in the State Finance Law. The report includes revenue and spending projections through SFY 2026-27.

New York’s financial outlook is in a relatively stable position, but continues to have a structural budget deficit, with a cumulative three-year budget gap of $13.9 billion forecasted by the Division of the Budget. Action is needed to align projected state spending with revenues and address factors that challenge the state’s finances, economic competitiveness, and ability to offer services effectively over the long term. While economic conditions continue to remain favorable, policymakers have an opportunity to take further steps to improve the State’s structural financial position, and to improve the performance of critical State programs.

The estimated $237 billion Enacted Budget for State Fiscal Year 2024-25 increases spending for vital state services like Medicaid and school aid and includes new funding and policy changes to spur the creation of much needed housing, but the State’s financial outlook includes several risks. At the State level, certain revenue streams that have been critical to maintaining budget balance are either scheduled to expire or be depleted in the years ahead, meaning current spending levels will be difficult to sustain. Finally, the Budget also includes troubling provisions that limit transparency and accountability.

In the throes of the economic uncertainty and fiscal turbulence caused by the COVID crisis, legislation was enacted as part of the SFY 2021-22 budget authorizing the use of State-supported bonding with final maturities up to 50 years for capital purposes for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority. This legislation has been reauthorized and proposed again in the State Fiscal Year 2024-25 Executive Budget. As we approach the State’s coming 2024-25 fiscal year, the budget proposal authorizing such 50-year borrowing should be rejected, and the State should return to long-standing bond financing norms. The budget also includes a proposal to severely restrict the State Comptroller’s terms and conditions oversight of private sales of State debt, which should be rejected.

After the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the State’s finances have stabilized, and the Division of the Budget is now forecasting reduced budget gaps. In addition, the Executive Budget includes a new proposal to severely restrict the State Comptroller’s terms and conditions approval of certain State bond issuances. This critical oversight and approval role protects taxpayers from short-sighted financing decisions that too often burden taxpayers with debt that is risky and costly.

The Office of the State Comptroller prepares this report as part of the "Quick Start" process established in the State Finance Law. The report includes revenue and spending projections through SFY 2025-26.

Despite significant uncertainty caused by inflation and other factors, State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2022-23 reflected continuing recovery from COVID-19 and economic growth. 

The Division of the Budget’s State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2023-24 Enacted Budget Financial Plan shows looming budget gaps totaling $36.4 billion through SFY 2026-27. The deteriorating fiscal outlook is rooted in several factors, including anticipated revenue declines from a weakening economy and a volatile stock market, and increases in recurring spending. State leaders must take action to align recurring revenues with recurring spending, with an eye toward preserving the economic competitiveness of our State and equality of opportunity for all New Yorkers.

The $229 billion Enacted Budget for State Fiscal Year 2023-24 includes new recurring spending for schools, mental health services, and health care, as well as resources for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and for emergency rental assistance. While these and other measures will increase spending, revenues are projected to decrease for the second year in a row, as temporary federal aid is depleted and tax collections decline.

The Executive Budget proposes $227 billion in All Funds spending in SFY 2023-24, an increase of 2.5% from the prior year. The State faces prolonged inflation, rising federal interest rates and the end of federal relief aid that was instrumental in balancing the past two budgets. As a result, the Division of the Budget projects shortfalls in revenues and increases in spending.

The Office of the State Comptroller (OSC) prepares this report as part of the “Quick Start” process established in State Finance Law. The report includes revenue and spending projections through SFY 2024-25.

As State policymakers responded to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying volatility in the State’s finances, New York ended the State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2021-22 budget on stable ground. 

After two years of extraordinary volatility in State finances, the State Fiscal Year 2022-23 Enacted Budget Financial Plan projects fiscal stability for the next five years and includes plans to bolster rainy day reserves significantly. However, this report identifies several revenue, spending, and sustainability risks that could disrupt the Financial Plan that should be monitored closely.

Historic federal aid and better-than-expected revenues allowed for a steep increase in spending in the Enacted Budget. However, sustaining new recurring commitments over a longer time period may be difficult as new economic risks emerge, federal funding is spent down, and temporary tax revenues sunset. Bolstering reserve funds is essential for ensuring services New Yorkers rely on can be preserved through economic challenges and fiscal uncertainties.

Although the Division of the Budget forecasts in the State Fiscal Year 2022-23 Executive Budget that the budget will remain in balance for the next five years, the direction of the pandemic, inflation, and supply chain issues all remain risks to the state’s economic recovery and financial plan. The budget also proposes billions of dollars in spending that would bypass critical oversight if enacted.

Update: Supplemental Report on the State Fiscal Year 2022-23 Executive Budget (As Amended by the Governor)

The Office of the State Comptroller prepares this report to enhance public discussion of the State's economy and budget. OSC estimates the State’s tax revenues will grow 22 percent in SFY 2021-22, 4.7 percent SFY 2022-23, and 3.2 percent in SFY 2023-24.

State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2020-21 will long be remembered for the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for the resilience demonstrated by New Yorkers in responding to the multitude of challenges.

The State Fiscal Year 2021-22 Enacted Budget Financial Plan reflects a remarkable improvement in the State’s financial condition, as New York and the nation have begun to recover from the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, there are significant risks to the plan that can be managed if policymakers commit to further strengthening the State’s rainy day reserve funds; exercise discipline by using temporary federal resources for non-recurring obligations over the multi-year plan period; consider the long-term sustainability of major spending programs; closely monitor personal income tax collections and taxpayer behavior; and restore effective State debt management practices, including establishment of new and meaningful debt limitations and, if practicable, greater use of “pay-as-you-go” capital.

The New York State All Funds Budget for State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2021-22 totals an estimated $212 billion — the largest budget in State history, almost 10 percent greater than the prior year. While the Budget relies on an influx of resources to make significant investments in Education, Medicaid, and for aid for New Yorkers and businesses, it also missed opportunities to correct course on some lingering fiscal deficiencies.

The Executive Budget Financial Plan for State Fiscal Year 2021-22 projects that federal operating aid spending in the current fiscal year will total $76.6 billion, an increase of 30 percent over last year. The proposed Budget assumes the State will receive at least $3 billion in unrestricted federal assistance for each of the next two fiscal years. However, that level of funding would not be enough to avert painful spending cuts to local governments, nonprofits and other service providers, or tax increases.