Reports

New York City increased its expectations for its surplus in fiscal year (FY) 2025 to $2.34 billion, largely as a result of stronger tax revenue projections and a reduction in the cost of providing services to asylum seekers, which will help balance its $116.9 billion FY 2026 budget. With escalating uncertainty in the federal funding environment — which could lead the State to make choices to balance its budget that pressure local government finances — preparation and transparency remain paramount to navigate the future.

New York City’s finances have stabilized amid declining costs for asylum seekers and strong revenue, largely from growth in business and property tax collections. The City must balance fiscal management with its operational needs to ensure it can continue to encourage employment and business growth, enhancing its economic and tax revenue base.

New York City’s finances continue to benefit from better-than-projected revenues and savings generated through initiatives launched in response to its financial challenges, but the continued influx of asylum seekers, elevated demand for City programs and a declining surplus demand preparation to navigate future uncertainty.

Higher-than-projected revenue and cost-saving initiatives have helped New York City’s fiscal year (FY) 2024 budget generate a projected year-end surplus of $3.9 billion that will be used to prepay expenses for the next fiscal year, helping the City balance its FY 2025 executive budget. While some of the fiscal challenges facing the City are not in its direct control, including the continued influx of asylum seekers, preparation and transparency remain paramount to navigating future uncertainty. Ultimately, future economic growth in the City, and thereby the State, relies on enhancing affordability and opportunity for all New Yorkers.

Better-than-projected revenues and planned cost savings benefited New York City’s budget outlook for Fiscal Year 2025, but outyear budget gaps remain large due to the end of federal pandemic aid and a lack of federal funding to support asylum seeker costs. Additional City funding for education and social services programs that support working-class families may be needed if those programs will be maintained at current levels in the future.  

New York City faces spending risks that could increase its budget gaps for Fiscal Years 2025 through 2027 to an average of $12.6 billion annually, fueled by spending choices made during the pandemic, underbudgeting for recurring spending, and significant costs associated with the influx of asylum seekers into the five boroughs. While many of the fiscal challenges facing the City are not in its direct control, preparation and transparency remain paramount to navigating this uncertainty.

New York City’s finances continue to benefit from better-than-projected revenues and savings generated through initiatives launched in response to its financial challenges. While many of the fiscal challenges facing the City are not in its direct control — including the continued influx of asylum seekers, elevated demand for City programs due to an uneven recovery and the potential for federal and State actions that could further pressure City finances — preparation remains paramount to navigating this uncertainty.

Stronger-than-anticipated revenue and savings initiatives will allow New York City to maintain budget balance in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, but the City faces significant financial pressures that are likely to exacerbate already large out-year budget gaps. Budget balance in FY 2024 comes as the City is returning to a revenue composition that more closely resembles pre-pandemic norms, moving away from reliance on federal relief aid.

New York City’s $104.8 billion preliminary fiscal year (FY) 2024 budget has benefitted from better-than-projected revenue collections, the reallocation of unused federal pandemic relief funds and savings initiatives. The Comptroller's office assumes that a number of the fiscal risks the City currently faces will continue, increasing the planned budget gap to about $8.9 billion in FY 2025 and $13.9 billion in FY 2027, even when adjusting for stronger revenue collections.

New York City’s fiscal year (FY) 2023 budget is projected to rise to $109.4, after transfers, but City finances could come under pressure amid a slowing economic recovery and an increase in demand for City services. For the upcoming FY 2024 preliminary budget, State Comptroller DiNapoli urges the City to provide a realistic and transparent view of the City’s revenue and expenses and take actions to close out-year gaps while maintaining critical services.

New York City’s fiscal position has significantly improved since June 2021. However, this was mostly due to unanticipated resources generated from a combination of factors that is not likely to occur at the same level again, and some factors have already begun to reverse. Total revenues are expected to decline by 9.4 percent in FY 2023 due to lower tax revenues and federal aid for COVID-19 relief. In total, OSC calculated risks to the City’s budget that could exceed $2 billion annually by FY 2024. The risk assessment grows to $5.9 billion in FY 2026, which could raise the budget gap in that year to nearly $9.9 billion.

New York City’s FY 2023 Budget and April Financial Plan shows the city has benefited from stronger-than-anticipated tax collections, outsized federal grant revenue from relief programs, savings in pension contributions from extraordinary asset gains in FY 2021, and announced additional savings programs, including significant vacancy reductions. However, better-than-projected fiscal performance may be short-lived amid inflation, geopolitical tension and supply chain issues.

The February Plan benefits from New York City’s continued economic resilience in 2021 and includes more proactive planning to fund budget risks and generate savings. The City is expecting to generate a surplus of $3.7 billion in fiscal year 2022 due to federal aid, better-than-projected tax revenues, and planned savings. The surplus could reach at least $4.5 billion if revenue and spending remain on their current tracks.

New York City forecasts a surplus of $965 million in the fiscal year ending in June 2022, based largely on the receipt of $750 million in unrestricted federal aid, and projects outyear gaps to drop by nearly a third from earlier estimates. Despite the positive news, the Office of the State Comptroller has identified several risks that could pose challenges to the City’s budget in the future.

This research brief analyzed multiyear financial plans submitted by cities under a new State requirement. The Comptroller's analysis looks at 48 of these plans, excluding New York City. The report notes that quality of these plans varied greatly and urges the State to adopt a formal review and approval process of the plans, as well as more training for city officials.