Reports

After a brief period of financial stability secured by an infusion of State funds last year, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) now faces growing fiscal uncertainties and risks that create projected budget gaps. Those gaps could grow much wider if various budget risks that the MTA has identified come to pass. A faster-than-expected return of ridership remains one of the key means for improving the fiscal stability of the system and highlighting the importance of continued investment in the assets of the system.

Transportation costs for households in the New York City metropolitan area grew by about 56% between 2012-13 and 2022-23, less than in the Los Angeles, Miami and San Francisco metropolitan areas. Transportation made up the second largest cost for New Yorkers, behind housing. It remains critical to maintain MTA service at affordable levels, so that transportation costs remain relatively affordable and offset housing costs, especially for lower- and middle-income households.

Wall Street’s $23.2 billion in pretax profits for the first half of 2024 were a dramatic 79.3% increase over the same period last year and buoyed by securities trading, underwriting, and account supervision. The City's securities industry has the greatest number of jobs in the nation despite a decline this year. The industry also continues to contribute tax revenues at or above pre-pandemic levels, and its contribution should exceed tax forecasts if stronger-than-expected profits hold up.

Brooklyn’s Coney Island and Brighton Beach have earned global reputations as destinations, but the dramatic rise in jobs over the past decade is less well known. Despite the pandemic, there were 35,203 jobs in Coney Island and Brighton Beach in 2023, a 101% increase from a decade earlier. The area is home to one of the largest populations of individuals 65 and over among neighborhoods citywide, and recent economic growth has been tied to serving this population.

The MTA must find billions in new funds even as the State tries to resolve the $15 billion gap in revenue created by the pause on congestion pricing. This report lays out possible sources to fund the MTA’s substantial capital needs and emphasizes areas of capital work expected to receive funding in its next capital program.

New York City’s finances continue to benefit from better-than-projected revenues and savings generated through initiatives launched in response to its financial challenges, but the continued influx of asylum seekers, elevated demand for City programs and a declining surplus demand preparation to navigate future uncertainty.

Office buildings in New York City remain a critical contributor to its economy and tax base, as market values reached nearly $205 billion in fiscal year 2025, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Higher market values on office buildings are being fueled by growth outside of traditional Midtown office districts, including Hudson Yards, Chelsea, Union Square, Soho, Downtown Brooklyn and Long Island City.

New York City’s contract spending (excluding capital projects) has grown significantly in recent years, rising to $24.3 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2023, an increase of nearly $7 billion from FY 2019, representing an outsized share (41%) of total citywide operating spending growth in this period. Total contract spending for goods and services represented nearly 22% of operating spending in FY 2023, compared to 16% in FY 2010.

As the largest commuter railroad in the nation, the Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) is making a steady recovery from the pandemic with growing ridership, increased service routes into the Grand Central Madison terminal and on-time performance in 2023 that was better than in 2019. Still, the LIRR had 31% more delays from train car problems last year than in 2019, showing there are still areas that can improve, such as increasing preventative maintenance of older train cars.

Small businesses with fewer than five employees grew over 10% in New York City during the COVID-19 pandemic. Very small businesses were a key source of new economic activity during the first half of the pandemic in the city, as they accounted for more than 71% of all businesses citywide. This report details the growth in New York City’s small businesses, the industries that were most affected, and the areas, Brooklyn and the Bronx, that saw the highest increases.

With the loss of $15 billion in congestion pricing revenue, the MTA has to reprioritize its 2020-2024 Capital Program. This report identifies over $21 billion in projects that potentially relied on congestion pricing revenue and are under review and suggests the Authority prioritize keeping the system in a state of good repair.

The North Shore, for many the gateway to Staten Island, has led the borough in population growth since 2010. The North Shore is located just north of the Staten Island Expressway and serves as an important freight and commuting hub. The area accounts for more than one third of the Staten Island population and its residents tend to be younger and more racially diverse than in other parts of the borough.

Higher-than-projected revenue and cost-saving initiatives have helped New York City’s fiscal year (FY) 2024 budget generate a projected year-end surplus of $3.9 billion that will be used to prepay expenses for the next fiscal year, helping the City balance its FY 2025 executive budget. While some of the fiscal challenges facing the City are not in its direct control, including the continued influx of asylum seekers, preparation and transparency remain paramount to navigating future uncertainty. Ultimately, future economic growth in the City, and thereby the State, relies on enhancing affordability and opportunity for all New Yorkers.

New York City’s tourism sector is approaching a complete recovery as visitor spending and related tax revenue have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The City now estimates it will exceed pre-pandemic levels and welcome a record 68 million visitors by 2025. The number of visitors had reached a previous record of 66.6 million in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic devastated this thriving industry, resulting in a 66.5% decline in visitors to 22.3 million in 2020.

The MTA’s capital program for maintaining and upgrading the regional transit system faces significant delays due to potential funding shortfalls caused by the late implementation of congestion pricing. The MTA should explain how it intends to prioritize its needs so that its choices do not result in disinvestment in the system, noting that bringing riders back would be one of the most direct routes for the MTA to reduce its debt burden over the long term.

New York City’s full-time government workforce is expected to increase for the first-time year-over-year since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, high turnover and vacancy rates exist at several City agencies. The City should continue efforts to increase and expedite hiring where needed to ensure critical agencies and departments can meet demands and provide quality services to residents.

The majority of New York City’s capital projects are over their initial budgets and behind schedule, suggesting better monitoring and reporting could lead to adjustments to improve capital project delivery. Recent reforms to the City’s capital planning process have focused on improving the delivery of projects, but little detail is available in public documentation about what is fueling these cost and schedule overruns. With closer, more uniform monitoring of capital projects, the City can better identify where additional improvement is needed.

The size of New York City’s immigrant workforce was flat over nearly a decade. Through 2023, the foreign-born labor market grew 18.5% since 2015 nationally, while New York City’s declined 0.6%, according to data analyzed from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Still, in 2023, New York City’s 1.8 million foreign-born workers made up 44.3% of its total labor force, more than double the national share of 18.6%.

One Page Summary: Foreign-Born in the Workforce in NYC

The average annual Wall Street bonus dipped to $176,500 last year, a 2% decline from the previous year’s average of $180,000. Wall Street’s profits were up 1.8% in 2023, but firms have taken a more cautious approach to compensation and more employees have joined the securities industry, which accounts for the slight decline in the average bonus.

Better-than-projected revenues and planned cost savings benefited New York City’s budget outlook for Fiscal Year 2025, but outyear budget gaps remain large due to the end of federal pandemic aid and a lack of federal funding to support asylum seeker costs. Additional City funding for education and social services programs that support working-class families may be needed if those programs will be maintained at current levels in the future.