Reports

New York City’s finances continue to benefit from better-than-projected revenues and savings generated through initiatives launched in response to its financial challenges. While many of the fiscal challenges facing the City are not in its direct control — including the continued influx of asylum seekers, elevated demand for City programs due to an uneven recovery and the potential for federal and State actions that could further pressure City finances — preparation remains paramount to navigating this uncertainty.

The federal- and State-funded Emergency Rental Assistance Program has distributed nearly $3.1 billion to approximately 250,000 applicants statewide. New York City’s residents received most of the funding (81.2%), followed by residents in Suffolk County (2.9%), Westchester County (2.7%) and Erie County (2.5%). The State and the City must continue to monitor renters’ ability to make payments and ensure any future funding, including the most recent commitment in the State budget, reaches the households that need it the most.

Stronger-than-anticipated revenue and savings initiatives will allow New York City to maintain budget balance in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, but the City faces significant financial pressures that are likely to exacerbate already large out-year budget gaps. Budget balance in FY 2024 comes as the City is returning to a revenue composition that more closely resembles pre-pandemic norms, moving away from reliance on federal relief aid.

Escalating debt service costs have long been a source of financial pressure at the MTA. The pandemic exacerbated these pressures causing ridership to drop and tax revenues to dry up. However, new sources of recurring revenue in the enacted State budget and other aid give the MTA an opportunity to ease the pressure that growing debt places on its operations and to stabilize its future finances.

The unemployment rate for mothers in New York City has improved but it remains higher than it was prior to the pandemic. In 2022, 5.7% of City moms in the workforce were unemployed compared to 3.4% nationally. Black mothers in the City are the hardest hit, facing an unemployment rate of 9%. Some mothers in the City appear to be looking for flexible options outside full-time work, especially compared to the rest of the State and the nation.

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated pre-existing staffing pressures, particularly a shortage of staff nurses, in NYC Health + Hospitals (H+H) facilities, leading to an increased reliance on temporary nurses and higher staffing costs. This report includes a trend analysis of nurses in New York City and the rest of the State, challenges to hire more staff nurses nationwide and the experience of H+H nurse staffing during this time.

As New York City’s overall taxable sales begin to normalize from their pandemic-fueled levels, various economic sectors, most notably leisure and hospitality, continue to recover their pandemic declines. As national retail sales growth slows from its double-digit pace of 2021, City retail sales and associated revenues could see a return to historical growth rates following the next two fiscal years.

Wall Street’s 2022 average bonus paid to securities employees dropped to $176,700, a 26% decline from the previous year’s $240,400. Rising interest rates and fear of a recession led to significantly less profits on Wall Street after a record year in 2021.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) continues to make progress on bringing back riders, but  ridership remains well below pre-pandemic levels, putting a major strain on its budget. The report highlights key areas of transit service — safety, reliability and frequency — where the MTA can take steps to improve riders’ experience and encourage their return, to effectively fulfil its mission and stabilize its fiscal position.

New York City’s $104.8 billion preliminary fiscal year (FY) 2024 budget has benefitted from better-than-projected revenue collections, the reallocation of unused federal pandemic relief funds and savings initiatives. The Comptroller's office assumes that a number of the fiscal risks the City currently faces will continue, increasing the planned budget gap to about $8.9 billion in FY 2025 and $13.9 billion in FY 2027, even when adjusting for stronger revenue collections.

Like many cities across the United States, New York City has adjusted its budget priorities during the COVID-19 pandemic to help address pressing needs. This report examines how the City’s spending priorities shifted during the pandemic, including increases to support education, public safety, quality of life improvements and social services, as well the risks and uncertainties that could impact these newly funded programs in the long term.

New York City’s fiscal year (FY) 2023 budget is projected to rise to $109.4, after transfers, but City finances could come under pressure amid a slowing economic recovery and an increase in demand for City services. For the upcoming FY 2024 preliminary budget, State Comptroller DiNapoli urges the City to provide a realistic and transparent view of the City’s revenue and expenses and take actions to close out-year gaps while maintaining critical services.

More than two years after the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City, young people are still facing double-digit unemployment. There are currently over 70,000 unemployed young workers in the City, nearly two times as many as in 2019. Young men are struggling the most with nearly 24% remaining unemployed, significantly higher than in the rest of New York State and the nation.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) has long faced difficulties closing projected budget gaps, which have been exacerbated by the pandemic, necessitating an unprecedented level of federal funding to maintain service operations. The MTA had been previously encouraged to examine cost and revenue efficiencies but those alone are unlikely to close the more than $2.5 billion annual gap that will remain when federal pandemic relief is exhausted in 2025, forcing the MTA to lay out savings and revenue options for its stakeholders to consider.

New York’s "Big Five" school districts in New York City, Yonkers, Buffalo, Syracuse and Rochester received $8.6 billion in federal pandemic relief funds, but there are sizeable differences in how school districts are using the funds. New York City has directed a smaller share of its total allocation toward addressing the academic impacts of the pandemic. The City, and all districts, can improve reporting linking educational outcomes for all of its students with their use of these historic federal education funds.

Attrition outpaces hiring among New York City’s municipal workforce, which could have an impact on critical City services and programs. The City’s full-time workforce declined by 19,113 employees over the last two years, the largest decline in staffing since the Great Recession of 2008. Despite the City hiring over 40,000 new employees in the last fiscal year, City job vacancies stand at more than 21,000.

Ten years ago, Superstorm Sandy made landfall in New York, causing catastrophic devastation to Long Island and New York City. One of the key organizations involved in the recovery and the planning of responses to future climate events is the MTA, whose assets were substantially impacted by the storm. This analysis tracks MTA’s progress on projects focused on rebuilding and strengthening elements affected by Superstorm Sandy and discusses what more can be done to better protect the system from new disasters.

Following near-record profitability in 2020, securities industry pretax profits rose even further in 2021. As federal stimulus actions have wound down, profits in 2022 are returning to pre-pandemic levels. New York State and City are reliant on tax revenues from the industry and must be cautious in managing their budgets given continued uncertainty in the financial markets. Though national sector employment has grown recently, the City’s share of national sector employment continued to decline slightly.

Technology sector employment in New York City increased by 33.6% (43,430 jobs) from 2016 to 2021 to reach a record high of 172,570 jobs. The city’s private sector lost 3.3% of jobs during this same period. Businesses in the tech sector also grew, accounting for 22.3 percent of the City’s total private firms added during the same period. Most of these firms consisted of fewer than 10 employees and contributed to the citywide growth in microbusinesses during the pandemic.

Over the last year, the fiscal position of the MTA has deteriorated, as transit ridership continued to lag at the low end of the authority’s projections. The MTA has two years to bring back riders and rebuild fare revenue before federal aid runs out. In the meantime, it must develop plans to cover budget gaps that start at $2.5 billion in 2025.