Reports

The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 provided $350 billion in additional fiscal relief to address the continued impact of COVID-19 on the economy, public health, and the finances of state and local governments, individuals and businesses. This report examines how New York City and other local governments across the country used the first of two partial payments of these funds, totaling nearly $224 billion.

Communities in the Rockaways were some of the hardest hit by the pandemic. Despite the challenges, local economic indicators have slowly improved as the pandemic has worn on, with the number of Rockaways businesses growing in 2020 and 2021. Since the City’s reopening following the height of the pandemic, local stakeholders in the Rockaways have made concerted efforts to promote economic recovery and improved environmental conditions, with a focus on mitigating the impact of extreme climate events.

MetroPlus Health Plan, a subsidiary of NYC Health + Hospitals (H+H), offers low cost to no cost health insurance coverage to eligible New Yorkers. In June 2022, enrollment reached a record high, which can be attributed to conditions and policy changes spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. Changes in MetroPlus enrollment have a direct impact on H+H's financial stability. As more of its members choose H+H as a provider, the hospital system generates more revenue.

New York City’s fiscal position has significantly improved since June 2021. However, this was mostly due to unanticipated resources generated from a combination of factors that is not likely to occur at the same level again, and some factors have already begun to reverse. Total revenues are expected to decline by 9.4 percent in FY 2023 due to lower tax revenues and federal aid for COVID-19 relief. In total, OSC calculated risks to the City’s budget that could exceed $2 billion annually by FY 2024. The risk assessment grows to $5.9 billion in FY 2026, which could raise the budget gap in that year to nearly $9.9 billion.

The pandemic caused a dramatic drop in riders and ridership revenue for transit systems across the country, and the MTA was hit particularly hard. The MTA must continue taking creative measures to boost ridership, but stakeholders may have to come to terms with enhancing or identifying new sources of revenue, cost savings and efficiencies if the agency is to achieve a balanced budget once federal aid runs out.

New York City’s transportation and warehousing sector regained 82% of its pandemic job losses as of April 2022. The sector’s relatively strong job gains over the past two years were fueled by increased demand for moving goods rather than people during the pandemic. An explosion in e⁠-⁠commerce led the growth in the courier and messenger, and warehousing and storage subsectors, which now well exceed pre-pandemic employment levels.

New York City lags the rest of the State and the nation in restoring pandemic job losses and in rebounding to pre-pandemic levels of unemployment. The recovery has also been uneven, with high-wage economic sectors generally faring better than low-wage sectors. This report aims to understand the main differences in labor force participation among the City’s workers and the reasons for the City’s slow recovery when compared to rest of the State and the nation.

New York City’s FY 2023 Budget and April Financial Plan shows the city has benefited from stronger-than-anticipated tax collections, outsized federal grant revenue from relief programs, savings in pension contributions from extraordinary asset gains in FY 2021, and announced additional savings programs, including significant vacancy reductions. However, better-than-projected fiscal performance may be short-lived amid inflation, geopolitical tension and supply chain issues.

From 2010 to 2020, Brooklyn experienced substantial economic growth, with employment and business growth rates outpacing the rest of New York City. However, the pandemic halted its economic progress and exacerbated existing inequalities in the borough. Brooklyn’s economy is showing signs of recovering to pre-pandemic levels, but City and State officials will need to collaborate with community leaders to ensure an equitable recovery.

Despite unprecedented federal aid, the MTA is still faced with determining how it will close its budget gaps in the future. If riders do not return faster than the MTA projects, or if new sources of revenue are not found, rising debt payments could force the MTA to close future budget gaps through service cuts, greater than planned fare hikes, or delays to critical capital projects.

Accelerating consumer price increases beginning in the spring of 2021 have led to the highest inflation rate in 30 years in the New York City Metropolitan Area. Consumer spending habits have already shifted, and persistent inflation on essential household items, such as housing and food, will limit purchasing power and squeeze household budgets absent stronger wage growth.

The average bonus paid to employees in New York City’s securities industry for 2021 grew to $257,500, a 20% jump over the previous year’s record high. The estimated bonuses paid out on Wall Street are higher than the city’s most recent 15.7% growth projection, and should help the city exceed its expected revenue from income taxes.

The February Plan benefits from New York City’s continued economic resilience in 2021 and includes more proactive planning to fund budget risks and generate savings. The City is expecting to generate a surplus of $3.7 billion in fiscal year 2022 due to federal aid, better-than-projected tax revenues, and planned savings. The surplus could reach at least $4.5 billion if revenue and spending remain on their current tracks.

The COVID-19 pandemic hit New York City particularly hard, causing massive job losses at major employers such as restaurants, hotels and retail stores. These dashboards follow a series of reports released over the past two years tracking economic data and the effect of the pandemic on these critical sectors and will help identify areas of weakness as well as positive developments.

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation | Construction | Office | Restaurant | Retail | Securities | Tourism | Transportation and Warehousing

The pandemic has disrupted the provision of services to students and precipitated declines in enrollment at CUNY, as in most education systems. CUNY received more than $1.5 billion in federal aid across three federal relief packages to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic, including a minimum of $634 million which must be provided directly to students. Only $386 million of the total remains to be allocated in fiscal years 2022 and 2023.

Prior to the pandemic, enrollment in the City’s cash assistance program had been on the decline, reaching a record-low level of 325,000 people in March 2020. Enrollment then grew sharply, by about 20 percent between February 2020 and September 2020, when the caseload peaked at 391,432 people, before beginning to decline. However, since September 2021, after federal extended unemployment benefits came to an end, enrollment has risen again

The Administration for Children’s Services has reported sharp declines in service levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. As schools operated remotely, the number of abuse and neglect reports from school staff and other mandated reporters slowed, resulting in fewer investigations by the agency.

To alleviate population density during the pandemic, the City accelerated the release of some inmates utilizing reintegration hotels with support services run by non-profit organizations. However, more than 1,200 correction officers had been reportedly infected with COVID-19 through March 2021.

The pandemic required a shift in agency operations, initially changing traffic patterns and requiring a pause in construction and repair work. As the City began its recovery, adaptations were needed to expand outdoor public space to encourage economic activity amid the public health crisis. The agency managed the administration and enforcement of the Open Streets and Open Restaurants programs.

The City experienced significant growth in its fulltime workforce in the years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, much of which was driven by new or expanded services. The pandemic, and the City’s efforts to manage the budgetary implications of its impact, have led to a decline in staffing which has undone much of this growth.