New York City increased its expectations for its surplus in fiscal year (FY) 2025 to $2.34 billion, largely as a result of stronger tax revenue projections and a reduction in the cost of providing services to asylum seekers, which will help balance its $116.9 billion FY 2026 budget. With escalating uncertainty in the federal funding environment — which could lead the State to make choices to balance its budget that pressure local government finances — preparation and transparency remain paramount to navigate the future.

This report examines the ways that funding received by local governments – from federal stimulus programs – as well as volatile annual state and local revenue sources – can impact local budgeting. The temporary nature of the federal stimulus funds in combination with state aid that has not kept pace with inflation, sales tax growth that has returned to lower pre-pandemic levels, and flat property tax revenue growth can put local governments closer to the edge of the fiscal cliff if not carefully managed.

This assessment of the proposed Executive Budget identifies risks and concerns that underscore the importance of taking action to address the trajectory of State spending and improve the State’s structural imbalance, while continuing to bolster the State’s rainy day reserves. After several years of benefitting from extraordinary pandemic relief funding, the federal-state relationship may be changing in ways that could result in cuts to key State programs, especially in health and social services. The need to strengthen the State’s fiscal position has never been greater.

Sales tax collections for local governments and other local taxing entities in New York State totaled $23.4 billion in calendar year 2024, up 1.6 percent (or nearly $376 million) from the prior year. This increase not only marked the lowest year-over-year rate of growth in collections since the COVID-related decline in 2020, but it was less than half the average annual growth rate (3.8 percent) for the 2011 to 2019 period of recovery and expansion following the Great Recession.

New York’s child care sector continues to face lingering challenges post-pandemic including child care deserts, low wages for child care workers and high prices that are putting a financial strain on families statewide. Yet even with high prices, many providers operate on thin margins, with financial and regulatory pressures that make expansion or even operating at capacity challenging. Vigorous federal support and additional State efforts are necessary to improve the availability of child care.