Although the Division of the Budget forecasts in the State Fiscal Year 2022-23 Executive Budget that the budget will remain in balance for the next five years, the direction of the pandemic, inflation, and supply chain issues all remain risks to the state’s economic recovery and financial plan. The budget also proposes billions of dollars in spending that would bypass critical oversight if enacted.

New York City’s published financial plan includes funding for some recurring spending initiatives for only a limited period, creating additional risks to already identified budget gaps. The Office of the State Comptroller has created a tool to identify sources and uses of funds for City programs that are not fully funded during the remaining years of the City’s financial plan, through Fiscal Year 2025

The City experienced significant growth in its fulltime workforce in the years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, much of which was driven by new or expanded services. The pandemic, and the City’s efforts to manage the budgetary implications of its impact, have led to a decline in staffing which has undone much of this growth.

While the Dedicated Highway and Bridge Trust Fund was intended to provide a reliable, dedicated stream of funding for the State’s transportation projects, it long ago ceased to serve this purpose and is now largely devoted to repaying past borrowings and supporting current operating costs. As a result, vital highway and bridge projects are at increased risk because the State continues to use these limited resources primarily for purposes other than financing current capital projects.

This snapshot highlights the FSMS results for school districts that reported for the school year (SY) ending on June 30, 2021. It also discusses the challenges that school districts faced in SY 2020-21, the first full year of operations under pandemic conditions.

New York City forecasts a surplus of $965 million in the fiscal year ending in June 2022, based largely on the receipt of $750 million in unrestricted federal aid, and projects outyear gaps to drop by nearly a third from earlier estimates. Despite the positive news, the Office of the State Comptroller has identified several risks that could pose challenges to the City’s budget in the future.

Monthly enrollment in the Medicaid program has grown by about 5 percent per year since January 2007, and exceeded 7 million for the first time in February 2021. This report discusses the factors that have driven growth in Medicaid enrollment and the resulting cost impacts, the relationship between Medicaid enrollment and economic indicators, and the cost implications if the Division of the Budget's anticipated enrollment reductions fail to materialize.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is facing significant long-term financial challenges, including risks to its capital plan and pressure from escalating debt, while the impacts of climate change demand a sharper focus on preparation for and response to extreme weather events. The passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act offers a boost for the agency’s capital plan, but also heightens the need for appropriate prioritization of capital projects.

The following Report on Local Governments provides a summary analysis of the financial state of the local governments outside of New York City for local fiscal years ending in 2019. | NYS Local Government Interactive Data

This snapshot highlights the FSMS results for school districts that reported for school fiscal year (SY) 2019-20, which ended on June 30, 2020, which included the period of the statewide mandatory school shutdown from March 18 through the end of the school year. The snapshot also discusses some of the major fiscal stress risk factors posed by the pandemic for school districts in SY 2020-21 (not yet scored).