New York City’s fiscal position has significantly improved since June 2021. However, this was mostly due to unanticipated resources generated from a combination of factors that is not likely to occur at the same level again, and some factors have already begun to reverse. Total revenues are expected to decline by 9.4 percent in FY 2023 due to lower tax revenues and federal aid for COVID-19 relief. In total, OSC calculated risks to the City’s budget that could exceed $2 billion annually by FY 2024.

The pandemic caused a dramatic drop in riders and ridership revenue for transit systems across the country, and the MTA was hit particularly hard. The MTA must continue taking creative measures to boost ridership, but stakeholders may have to come to terms with enhancing or identifying new sources of revenue, cost savings and efficiencies if the agency is to achieve a balanced budget once federal aid runs out.

Certain New York State agencies experienced major spikes in overtime during 2020 and 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but most overtime was performed in agencies that have typically relied upon it. And while the pandemic does not appear to have prompted a ‘great resignation’ from the State workforce as of 2021, workforce reductions since 2012, and prior years covered by this report, have been accompanied by a notable boost in overtime.

After two years of extraordinary volatility in State finances, the State Fiscal Year 2022-23 Enacted Budget Financial Plan projects fiscal stability for the next five years and includes plans to bolster rainy day reserves significantly. However, this report identifies several revenue, spending, and sustainability risks that could disrupt the Financial Plan that should be monitored closely.

New York's local Industrial Development Agencies (IDAs) reported 4,262 active projects with a total value of $114 billion in 2020, an increase of $5.3 billion from the prior year, according to an annual report on IDAs.

The devastating job losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic led to a record number of unemployment insurance (UI) claims in New York, necessitating borrowing from the federal government beginning in May 2020. Two years later, the State’s UI debt has remained stubbornly high despite steady employment gains and state tax rates that have already increased to maximum permissible levels. Absent federal or state significant action, interest costs will mount and employers federal taxes will also grow.

The pandemic required a shift in agency operations, initially changing traffic patterns and requiring a pause in construction and repair work. As the City began its recovery, adaptations were needed to expand outdoor public space to encourage economic activity amid the public health crisis. The agency managed the administration and enforcement of the Open Streets and Open Restaurants programs.

The Municipal Water Finance Authority reports that drinking water quality, water supply, and wastewater treatment were not impacted by COVID, but the pandemic has negatively affected revenues. The System’s total operating revenues declined by nearly $164 million (4.3 percent) from FY 2019 to FY 2021.

The DSNY experienced a surge in medical leave during the first few weeks of the pandemic and has continued to experience spikes in employee unavailability. This factor, coupled with a FY 2021 hiring freeze which reduced uniformed staff by 9 percent (nearly 700 employees) between February 2020 and June 2021, has resulted in higher overtime costs.

To alleviate population density during the pandemic, the City accelerated the release of some inmates utilizing reintegration hotels with support services run by non-profit organizations. However, more than 1,200 correction officers had been reportedly infected with COVID-19 through March 2021.