Despite unprecedented federal aid, the MTA is still faced with determining how it will close its budget gaps in the future. If riders do not return faster than the MTA projects, or if new sources of revenue are not found, rising debt payments could force the MTA to close future budget gaps through service cuts, greater than planned fare hikes, or delays to critical capital projects.
The February Plan benefits from New York City’s continued economic resilience in 2021 and includes more proactive planning to fund budget risks and generate savings. The City is expecting to generate a surplus of $3.7 billion in fiscal year 2022 due to federal aid, better-than-projected tax revenues, and planned savings. The surplus could reach at least $4.5 billion if revenue and spending remain on their current tracks.
Historic relief funds from the federal government, provided in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, boosted New York’s per capita balance of payments from Washington from second-to-last in federal fiscal year 2019 to 40th in 2020. During this period, New York received $1.59 for every tax dollar paid to Washington, an increase from 91 cents from the prior year, but still below the national average of $1.92.
Unrestricted State aid for cities, towns and villages has remained flat or declined over the last decade. When adjusted for inflation, unrestricted aid to local governments has actually declined by 24% since 2011, when the State’s real property tax cap was enacted.
Although the Division of the Budget forecasts in the State Fiscal Year 2022-23 Executive Budget that the budget will remain in balance for the next five years, the direction of the pandemic, inflation, and supply chain issues all remain risks to the state’s economic recovery and financial plan. The budget also proposes billions of dollars in spending that would bypass critical oversight if enacted.
New York City’s published financial plan includes funding for some recurring spending initiatives for only a limited period, creating additional risks to already identified budget gaps. The Office of the State Comptroller has created a tool to identify sources and uses of funds for City programs that are not fully funded during the remaining years of the City’s financial plan, through Fiscal Year 2025
The City experienced significant growth in its fulltime workforce in the years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, much of which was driven by new or expanded services. The pandemic, and the City’s efforts to manage the budgetary implications of its impact, have led to a decline in staffing which has undone much of this growth.
While the Dedicated Highway and Bridge Trust Fund was intended to provide a reliable, dedicated stream of funding for the State’s transportation projects, it long ago ceased to serve this purpose and is now largely devoted to repaying past borrowings and supporting current operating costs. As a result, vital highway and bridge projects are at increased risk because the State continues to use these limited resources primarily for purposes other than financing current capital projects.
This snapshot highlights the FSMS results for school districts that reported for the school year (SY) ending on June 30, 2021. It also discusses the challenges that school districts faced in SY 2020-21, the first full year of operations under pandemic conditions.
New York City forecasts a surplus of $965 million in the fiscal year ending in June 2022, based largely on the receipt of $750 million in unrestricted federal aid, and projects outyear gaps to drop by nearly a third from earlier estimates. Despite the positive news, the Office of the State Comptroller has identified several risks that could pose challenges to the City’s budget in the future.
