The “Big Five” cities of New York City, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Yonkers either are, or have recently been, fiscally distressed. This affects their dependent school systems, which already face significant challenges associated with the socio-economic composition of their students and the age of their facilities.

The current global financial market crisis could have serious implications for New York’s local governments if access to the credit markets remains constrained. While many long-term implications for local government finances may occur as a result of the broader deterioration in the economy, the credit situation has produced a more immediate impact on liquidity – the ability of local governments to finance their short-term capital operations and cash flow needs. Local governments who are dependent on short-term debt for these purposes could face continued risks.

This report analyzes historical trends in local capital spending and the current condition of our local infrastructure. It suggests some important steps that the State and local governments need to take to improve capital planning within New York. Finally, it suggests some policy options that could help sustain investment in the State’s infrastructure and encourage more coordinated, regional approaches to investment.

The meltdown of the national housing market continues to threaten homeowners with foreclosures and reduced home values. Fortunately, New York had fewer subprime mortgages and has fared better than many other states.1 Nonetheless, the decline in home sales and home values is being felt, particularly downstate.

The 2011-12 Executive Budget proposes a $1.5 billion net cut in State aid to schools, which would result in a 7.3 percent decrease in aid to districts statewide, translating to a 2.9 percent reduction to total general fund budgets. | [read District by District report - pdf]

Based on Consumer Price Index data, the downward trend in inflation means that local governments operating on a December 31 fiscal year end will see the inflation factor decrease to 0.73 percent, causing a significant reduction over prior years in the allowable levy growth factor, an important component of their tax cap calculation. OSC estimates that these calendar year local governments will have roughly $135.1 million less than they would have had if the factor was at 2 percent.

This report briefly describes that the average allowable levy growth is 3 percent, rather than the 2 percent voters may be expecting.

The number of school districts overriding the tax cap has declined each year. In general, school districts’ decisions to override the tax cap were based, at least in part, on necessity. When examining the relationship between fiscal stress and tax cap overrides, we found that fiscally stressed school districts were nearly three times more likely to override the tax cap when compared to school districts that were not designated as stressed.

Local sales tax collections grew by $650 million, or 5 percent, from 2010 to 2011, compared to a growth rate of 9.9 percent between 2009 and 2010. However, nearly a third of the 2010 growth was attributable to a sales tax rate increase in New York City. Without this, growth would have been about 7 percent. | [read county-by-county report - pdf]

Although total local sales tax collections have grown each quarter since the end of the 2008-2009 recession, the rate of this growth has shown a downward overall trend. [read county-by-city data - pdf]